Saturday, January 22, 2005
You can view the election ad I mentioned in the previous post from here. You can also watch other ads and read their english transcripts.
5 out of Iraq's 18 governorates will be insecure for January 30th elections. Below is Iraq's "threat codes"
Sever: Salah al Din, Al Anbar
Worrisome: Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa (where Mosul is)
Stable: Basra, Najaf, Thi-Qar, Wassit, Qadissiya, Missan, Babel, Karbala, Muthana, Tameem
Very Stable: Irbil, Dahuk, Sulaymaniyah
You will notice that the 5 dangerous governorates have significant Sunni populations in them. It will take time until major Sunni players suddenly realize that they are not the monopoly in Iraq. I think the elected National Assembly, with its Shia majority, must reach out to Sunnis.
The "Sunni problem" is very complicated because of 2 reasons. First, the Sunni Baathists and aristocracy lost power and they simply want it back. I am not sure whether they will settle for a compromise. Second, the Sunni barbaric animalistic Wahabis/Salafist will never sit with the Shias on the same table and share the country. In other words, you can't negotiate with those guys.
Yesterday one of those animals packed an ambulance with explosives and rammed the vehicle into a Shia wedding party. The bride and the groom were killed along with scores of other people. What kind of person will sacrifice his own life just to kill a number of Shias??!!
Was I surprised when that happened? No. Not longtime ago, a person in Pakistan who adheres to the same ideology as his buddy in Iraq packed his own vehicle with explosives and slammed it into a Shia mosque. So, killing Shias appears to be one of the Sunnis Wahabi/Salafists favorite shortcuts to the path that leads to the virgins in paradise.
Will this elections cause civil war? The answer depends upon the following:
-The level of attacks against Shias in Iraq
-Will Shias suddenly say "we had enough" and carry the gun?
-How will the new Shia dominated national assembly reach out to Sunni Baathists and tribal Sheikhs and how much leverage do these 2 entities have over the Wahabists/Salafists?
-If Sunni Baathists and other prominent Sunnis accepted a compromise, will the Salafists/Wahabists abandon the jihad against America and against the expected Shia dominated government?