Thursday, March 17, 2005
I want to borrow from what happened in the Lebanon revolution and try to apply it to the Iranian revolution that we all wish for. The events in Lebanon can offer us a blueprint to what can happen in Iran in the near future. The vocal opposition to the Syrian occupation of Lebanon was first limited to the Christian population there. Back in the late 90s we often heard of anti-Syria protests by students of Christian universities in Lebanon and those were easily cracked down by a couple of hosepipes and a few tear gas bombs. Syria always said that only a “minority” wanted it out and so the occupation continued. I was in Lebanon when the Druze community joined their fellow Christians in the opposition. I remember staying glued in front of Lebanon’s TV as I watched the Maronite Patriarch Sfier make an unprecedented trip the Shouf mountains, Lebanon’s Druze enclave. He asked his fellow Druze to join him in burying the past (Christians and Druze savagely fought each other during the civil war) and work towards the good of Lebanon. Later, Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader, joined the opposition Rafik Hariri, a Sunni, made his opposition so vocal when Syria went through with its plans to change Lebanon’s constitution and allow its puppet President Lahood to stay for another term. Hariri used his excellent international relations especially with France’s Chirac to push for UN resolution 1559. He didn’t know that he was pushing for his death certificate. His assassination was the finger that pulled the already pressured trigger. Hariri’s appeal across Lebanon’s sects and his importance as a Sunni leader made the majority go crazy when he was assassinated. From this scenario we can deduce that the revolution blossomed after 2 stages: A vocal opposition that grew bigger and a single incident that triggered the revolution. In Iran, the vocal opposition is mainly composed of the young university students. They hold demonstrations every now and then and the devilish theocracy there know that these demonstrations will grow bigger and one day break its backbone. This is why they crack on them so severely. As for the trigger, I am not sure what will unleash a massive revolution in Iran but it hope it will be like Lebanon, something that will force the majority of Iranians to the streets until they pull the regime down.