The Big Pharaoh
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Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Pros and Cons

It was very interesting to read the comments on my last post in which I discussed the possibility that the CIA can help Kurdish and Arab rebels in Iran. It was clear that most readers were critical and apprehensive towards my idea. It seems that my post brought flashbacks of previous cold war tactics.

I admit that I was not feeling very good towards my idea as well. It is sad that I even thought about it. When the coalition went into Afghanistan and Iraq, we all thought that Iran would be sandwiched emboldening the Iranian people to kick off their long awaited second revolution. Now, it appears as if Iran is one of the biggest gainers of the war in Iraq. Don’t get me wrong. The Mollahs are indeed sandwiched and not feeling comfortable from the US presence on both their western and eastern borders, but it seems their mere discomfort will not develop into deep worrying as long as the US is boggled down in Iraq. This is the reason why they are supporting both the Shia government in Baghdad and the terrorists.

Messing up in the Kurdish and Arab territories of Iran might disrupt Iran’s plans in Iraq, but such an option does not lack drawbacks. Here are the pros and cons.


-Disrupting Iran’s politics in Iraq and keeping it occupied. This might lessen its grip over Iraq’s south.
-Giving the US and the coalition a card to play: you end up helping the terrorists and messing up in the south, we stop our support to the Kurds and Arabs.
-If given the right weapons, the Arabs might blow up Iran’s oil fields thus cutting the “oxygen” off the regime.
-A Kurdish and Arab revolt might embolden the Persians to turn against their rulers. The regime might crumble afterwards.


-Kurdish and Arab rebels might engage in terrorism against Iranian civilians.
-Iranian army succeeds in crushing both rebel groups and take revenge by increasing the heat on the US in Iraq. This won’t be good at all.
-If US withdrew its rebels support for whatever reason, the Iranian army will literally eat the Kurds and the Arabs alive. Does the Southern Vietnamese army ring a bell?
-If Arabs blew up the oil wells in their area, expect to pay $80 per barrel.
-US loses the support of the ONLY most pro-US people in the Middle East.

I just wish my idea gets implemented with less damage as possible. Well, don’t we all wish that for all our ideas?!


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