The Big Pharaoh
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Elections Update

So far from what I've heard, the turnout of those who have a registration card is OK. Hani (see previous post) who is in a polling station in downtown told me that he heard stories of fighting over votes going on in Bab El Shaariya, Ayman Noor's district.

This morning someone told me that I can vote with my ID card. I don't want to repeat what happened to me during the referendum last May when I went to the station only to get turned back because I don't have a registration card.

Well, I can sense that these elections are indeed different. I can't wait to know the "results". My prediction is as follows:

1. Hosni Mubarak (70-75%)
2. Nomaan Gomaa (10-15%)
3. Ayman Noor (5-10%)

I am sure Nomaan Gomaa will beat Ayman Noor and come in second. Gomaa leads a very old party (Al Wafd) that has an OK base and much more money than Noor. In addition, it appears as if the Muslim Brotherhood will vote for Gomaa in these presidential elections and join the Al Wafd in the parliamentary elections next November. These 3 factors will probably give Gomaa the second seat.

"Crammed into armored Humvees heaving with weapons, Lt. Col. S. Jamie Gayton and his soldiers were greeted by a surprising sight as they rolled into one of Baghdad's poorest neighborhoods.

Men stood and waved. Women smiled. Children flashed thumbs-up signs as the convoy rumbled across the potholed streets of Sadr City (Muqtada Sadr's stronghold)."

Check out what's changing Sadr City.

The success of Sadr City should force the Pentagon to seriously consider implementing the oil-spot strategy as suggested by Andrew F. Krepinevich


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